By Michael Beenstock
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Extra info for The Foreign Exchanges: Theory, Modelling and Policy
In practice, as we shall see, there may be limits to the authorities' sterilisation capacities. The more substantive long-term issues arising out of public expenditure are the effects on economic growth of a large participation of the public sector the economy. However, these issues are not discussed here. So much for the supply of money. The demand for money ( LD) will depend on prices, real incomes and interest rates: LD = LD(Px, p..... 24) The spot rate has a negative sign because an appreciation reduces import prices and therefore the demand for nominal balances.
In what follows, we operate with respect to a single domestic interest rate (rd) which typically is represented by a short-term interest rate (r,) and an overseas interest rate (r w) of comparable maturity, etc. The forward rate (F) is of the same maturity as the interest rate to which it refers. 12) The Balance of Payments 26 where the spot and forward rates have been normalised with respect to the interest rates (see p. 83). S - F is the cost of forward cover and the expression in brackets is the covered differential expressed in favour of the home country.
This arises on account of the implicit lags generated by the stock-flow framework. If say DCE is raised by 100 into perpetuity, the balance of payments will eventually deteriorate by 100. Before that time, however, the stock of money in the system will build up and the price level will have to adjust upwards via the real balance effect. The longer the lags, the greater is the scope for a price level that is independent of the world price in the long term. In these respects the results differ from the familiar 'monetarist' _ propositions.
The Foreign Exchanges: Theory, Modelling and Policy by Michael Beenstock